Published August 13, 2026
Niagara Real Estate Market Update - July 2026
July 2026
Real Estate Market
A complete breakdown of every municipality, every property type, and every trend that matters — written plainly so you can act on it.
The big picture
July 2026 Market Overview
July 2026 tells a tale of two stories. On the surface, sales dipped 4.3% from June and are down 7.2% year-over-year — a mid-summer slowdown that is entirely typical for this time of year. Families are travelling, decision-making slows, and transaction volumes naturally compress. This is not a market reversal. It is seasonality.
Underneath that, the fundamentals continue to improve. The HPI benchmark edged up 0.2% to $572,200 — the second consecutive month-over-month price gain. Days on market dropped 6.7% from June to just 42 days. The sales-to-listings ratio hit 40% — the highest of 2026 and right on the threshold of balanced market territory. The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive month on July 15th, reinforcing the stable financial environment buyers and sellers need to make confident decisions.
West Lincoln had a standout month — sales nearly tripled year-over-year from 7 to 19 (+171%). Thorold (+28.6% YoY) and Niagara-on-the-Lake (+34.6% YoY) also showed strong annual growth. The recovery is broadening.
Don’t mistake summer seasonality for a market reversal. Prices are up for the second month in a row. DOM is falling. The S/L ratio is at its highest point all year. The underlying trajectory of this market is positive. The sales dip is July doing what July always does. Watch what happens in September.
Pricing trends
Home Prices — Two Consecutive Months of Gains
The MLS® HPI composite benchmark for Niagara came in at $572,200 in July 2026 — down 5.5% from $605,700 in July 2025, but up 0.2% from June’s $571,300. That makes two consecutive months of month-over-month price gains — May (+0.3%) and June (+0.2%) in sequential positive territory. This is the clearest sign yet that the price floor has been established.
Year-over-year declines are moderating. The -5.5% figure is the smallest YoY price decline since early in 2026. As we continue lapping a weaker second half of 2025 in the months ahead, these comparisons will continue to improve. The direction of travel is now clearly upward on a monthly basis.
What is the HPI? The MLS® Home Price Index Benchmark tracks a consistent “typical” home over time — in Niagara, aged 51–99 years, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, masonry and siding exterior, municipal services. Far more reliable than average sale price for understanding true price trends.
Sales activity
Sales — A Seasonal Dip, Not a Reversal
596 homes sold across Niagara in July 2026 — down 4.3% from June’s 623 and 7.2% below July 2025’s 642. This is consistent with normal seasonal patterns. July is historically one of the quieter months for transactions as the summer travel season peaks. Context matters here: this same dip happens virtually every year.
The year-over-year winners tell a more interesting story. West Lincoln sales tripled from 7 to 19 (+171% YoY). Niagara-on-the-Lake posted 35 sales vs 26 last July (+34.6%). Thorold bounced back strongly to 36 sales from 28 (+28.6%). These are markets showing genuine demand growth, not just seasonal noise.
On the other side, Pelham pulled back sharply from June’s strong month (-42.9% MoM, 35 to 20 sales) and Welland dropped 22.5% MoM. Both were particularly active in June so some pullback is expected. In low-volume markets, month-to-month swings can be dramatic without signalling any structural change.
Inventory & market pace
Inventory and Days on Market
1,488 new listings came to market in July 2026 — down 11.9% from 1,689 in July 2025 and down 6.5% from June’s 1,591. Inventory continues to tighten year-over-year, which is one of the primary drivers of the price stability we’re now seeing. Fewer competing listings means sellers face less pressure to discount.
Average days on market dropped to 42 days in July, down from 45 in June (-6.7%). This is a meaningful improvement. It tells us that despite lower transaction volumes, the homes that are priced correctly are moving efficiently. Grimsby (34 days), Pelham (33 days), and Port Colborne (34 days) were the fastest markets. Thorold (50 days) and Fort Erie (56 days) averaged the longest, suggesting more buyer selectivity at higher price points in those markets.
Market balance
Sales-to-Listings Ratio — 40% Is the Highest of 2026
The region-wide S/L ratio reached 40% in July — the highest point of 2026 and right on the threshold of a balanced market. West Lincoln hit 76% — a full seller’s market. Lincoln reached 47%, approaching balanced. St. Catharines at 46% and Grimsby at 41% are both near balance. The market is tightening from the bottom up.
Year-over-year data
July 2025 vs July 2026 — Full Municipal Breakdown
All data from the Niagara Association of REALTORS® MLS® System. Price decreases in red. Sales increases in green. DOM decreases (faster selling) in green.
| Area | New Listings | Sales | HPI Benchmark | Avg DOM | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | Jul 2026 | Jul 2025 | Jul 2026 | Jul 2025 | Jul 2026 | Jul 2025 | Jul 2026 | |
| Fort Erie | 163 | 191+17.2% | 63 | 62−1.6% | $518,000 | $497,300−4.0% | 63 | 56−11.1% |
| Grimsby | 102 | 94−7.8% | 46 | 39−15.2% | $728,700 | $671,000−7.9% | 38 | 34−10.5% |
| Lincoln | 83 | 72−13.3% | 36 | 34−5.6% | $719,400 | $670,300−6.8% | 30 | 41+36.7% |
| Niagara Falls | 324 | 292−9.9% | 115 | 105−8.7% | $608,100 | $560,600−7.8% | 40 | 400.0% |
| Niagara-on-the-Lake | 106 | 79−25.5% | 26 | 35+34.6% | $909,500 | $870,900−4.2% | 40 | 49+22.5% |
| Pelham | 60 | 64+6.7% | 27 | 20−25.9% | $768,200 | $741,900−3.4% | 44 | 33−25.0% |
| Port Colborne/Wainfleet | 89 | 84−5.6% | 46 | 34−26.1% | $492,700 | $477,500−3.1% | 45 | 34−24.4% |
| St. Catharines | 410 | 323−21.2% | 174 | 150−13.8% | $557,300 | $528,500−5.2% | 37 | 39+5.4% |
| Thorold | 115 | 101−12.2% | 28 | 36+28.6% | $607,400 | $566,900−6.7% | 39 | 50+28.2% |
| Welland | 216 | 163−24.5% | 74 | 62−16.2% | $508,800 | $488,000−4.1% | 35 | 38+8.6% |
| West Lincoln | 21 | 25+19.0% | 7 | 19+171.4% | $684,700 | $642,000−6.2% | 18 | 47+161.1% |
| Niagara Totals | 1,689 | 1,488 −11.9% | 642 | 596 −7.2% | $605,700 | $572,200 −5.5% | 39 | 42 +7.7% |
Month-over-month data
June 2026 vs July 2026 — The Summer Slowdown
Sales dipped 4.3% MoM — typical for July. But prices held firm (+0.2%) and DOM improved (-6.7%). West Lincoln nearly doubled its sales MoM (10→19). Niagara Falls and Grimsby also gained. The summer slowdown is real but selective.
| Area | New Listings | Sales | HPI Benchmark | Avg DOM | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | |
| Fort Erie | 182 | 191+5.0% | 72 | 62−13.9% | $489,000 | $497,300+1.7% | 59 | 56−5.1% |
| Grimsby | 107 | 94−12.1% | 35 | 39+11.4% | $674,400 | $671,000−0.5% | 42 | 34−19.0% |
| Lincoln | 77 | 72−6.5% | 32 | 34+6.2% | $668,000 | $670,300+0.3% | 38 | 41+7.9% |
| Niagara Falls | 279 | 292+4.7% | 94 | 105+11.7% | $562,300 | $560,600−0.3% | 38 | 40+5.3% |
| Niagara-on-the-Lake | 117 | 79−32.5% | 39 | 35−10.3% | $866,300 | $870,900+0.5% | 46 | 49+6.5% |
| Pelham | 60 | 64+6.7% | 35 | 20−42.9% | $754,200 | $741,900−1.6% | 32 | 33+3.1% |
| Port Colborne/Wainfleet | 103 | 84−18.4% | 41 | 34−17.1% | $467,200 | $477,500+2.2% | 57 | 34−40.4% |
| St. Catharines | 389 | 323−17.0% | 152 | 150−1.3% | $522,900 | $528,500+1.1% | 30 | 39+30.0% |
| Thorold | 88 | 101+14.8% | 33 | 36+9.1% | $573,300 | $566,900−1.1% | 38 | 50+31.6% |
| Welland | 157 | 163+3.8% | 80 | 62−22.5% | $495,700 | $488,000−1.6% | 46 | 38−17.4% |
| West Lincoln | 32 | 25−21.9% | 10 | 19+90.0% | $684,300 | $642,000−6.2% | 66 | 47−28.8% |
| Niagara Totals | 1,591 | 1,488 −6.5% | 623 | 596 −4.3% | $571,300 | $572,200 +0.2% | 45 | 42 −6.7% |
Segment analysis
By Property Type — Two-Storey Leads the Recovery
The standout this month is the 2-storey detached segment, which gained 1.4% month-over-month to $625,400 — the strongest single-month gain of any property type in 2026. Year-over-year, 2-storey is also the most resilient at -4.7%, well ahead of all other segments. If you own or are buying a 2-storey detached home, you’re in the strongest part of this market.
Bungalows (1-storey) dipped 1.1% MoM to $569,000 but remain relatively stable year-over-year at -5.8%. Townhouses were essentially flat MoM at -0.3%. Apartments continued to be the weakest segment, down 0.7% MoM and a significant 15.5% year-over-year to $333,500 — the steepest YoY decline of any property type by a wide margin.
Two-storey detached is the market leader. At -4.7% YoY and +1.4% MoM, the 2-storey segment is showing the clearest signs of price recovery. Buyers targeting 2-storey detached homes should expect less negotiating room than in other segments — particularly in St. Catharines, Lincoln, and Grimsby where demand is strongest.
Municipal analysis
Every Municipality — Deep Dive
West Lincoln
Sales nearly tripled year-over-year (7→19, +171%). The only true seller’s market in Niagara this month at 76% S/L. DOM dropped from 66 days in June to 47. Low volume makes swings dramatic, but this is a genuinely hot month for West Lincoln.
St. Catharines
The highest-volume market holding near balanced at 46% S/L. Prices up 1.1% MoM. Listings fell 21.2% YoY to 323 — tightest supply in years. With strong demand and tightening inventory, St. Catharines sellers are in an increasingly favourable position.
Lincoln
47% S/L approaches balanced territory. Sales held relatively steady MoM and prices edged up 0.3% from June. DOM rose to 41 days but remains reasonable for a premium-priced market. Lincoln continues to be one of the more balanced markets in Niagara.
Niagara-on-the-Lake
Third consecutive month of strong YoY sales growth (+34.6%). Prices edged up 0.5% MoM. The luxury market here has shown remarkable resilience — -4.2% YoY is the second-smallest decline in the region. 44% S/L approaching balanced for this premium segment.
Niagara Falls
Sales up 11.7% MoM to 105 — a strong July for Niagara Falls. Still 36% S/L gives buyers leverage, but the market is moving. DOM held flat at 40 days YoY. High listing volume (292) means buyers have solid selection at the $560K price point.
Grimsby
34-day DOM is among the fastest in the region. Sales up 11.4% MoM. 41% S/L approaching balanced. Despite the YoY price softening, Grimsby is showing real buyer activity at the $671K price point. One of the more active markets this month.
Welland
Sales pulled back 22.5% from June’s strong month but 38% S/L and 38-day DOM show a still-active market. Under $490K benchmark keeps Welland one of the most affordable freehold options in Niagara. Prices relatively resilient at -4.1% YoY.
Thorold
Thorold had a solid July with sales up 28.6% YoY and 9.1% MoM. DOM at 50 days is elevated, but sales volume is genuinely improving. At 36% S/L buyers still have leverage, but the direction is positive for sellers willing to price competitively.
Fort Erie
Fort Erie has the most listings in the region (191) relative to sales (62), creating a 32% S/L ratio — deep buyer territory. However, prices are up 1.7% MoM and -4.0% YoY is one of the smaller declines in the region. DOM improved from 59 to 56 days.
Port Colborne/Wainfleet
40% S/L and 34-day DOM make Port Colborne one of the more active markets in July. Prices up a solid 2.2% MoM. YoY price decline of just -3.1% is the smallest in the region. Most affordable benchmark in Niagara and showing real price resilience.
Pelham
Sales dropped sharply from June’s 35 to 20 (-42.9% MoM) but this follows one of Pelham’s strongest months. DOM at just 33 days is excellent for this premium price point. YoY price decline of -3.4% is among the smallest in the region. The underlying market here is healthier than the S/L ratio suggests.
Practical guidance
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers
July is one of the better months to buy — use the summer quiet to your advantage.
- →The summer slowdown means less buyer competition right now. Properties that are still sitting have motivated sellers. This is a good window to negotiate.
- →Prices are rising for the second month in a row. If you’ve been waiting for the absolute bottom, the data suggests it’s likely behind us. Waiting further means buying into a strengthening market.
- →Apartments remain the most negotiable at -15.5% YoY. If a condo is your target, you still have meaningful room below asking in most markets.
- →West Lincoln (76% S/L) and St. Catharines (46% S/L) are approaching or in seller territory. Don’t expect significant negotiating room in well-priced properties there.
- →Bank of Canada held at 2.25% for the sixth consecutive month. Rate stability gives you the certainty to budget and commit with confidence.
For sellers
The market is improving — fall 2026 could be your best window in two years.
- →Two consecutive months of price gains, improving S/L ratios, and the highest S/L of 2026 all point toward a strengthening fall market. If you’re planning to list, September is shaping up to be the best opportunity of the year.
- →Inventory is down 11.9% year-over-year. Fewer competing listings means your property gets more attention from active buyers. List now and you’re one of fewer options in front of buyers.
- →2-storey detached sellers are in the strongest position of any property type. A 1.4% MoM gain and best-in-class YoY performance means this segment is leading the recovery.
- →Condo and apartment sellers still face the toughest conditions at -15.5% YoY. Price your unit sharply relative to recent comparables and expect buyers to negotiate hard.
- →The summer slowdown is temporary. If you need to sell now, price aggressively and present impeccably. If you have flexibility, hold for the fall market when buyer activity typically surges back.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I be worried about the July sales drop?
No. July sales dips are seasonal and happen virtually every year. Families are travelling, fewer people are making major financial decisions, and transaction volumes naturally compress. What matters is the underlying data: prices went up for the second month in a row, DOM improved, and the S/L ratio hit its highest point of 2026. None of those things happen in a deteriorating market. Watch September — that’s when the fall market activates and will give a much clearer read on trajectory.
Has the market bottomed out?
The data is increasingly pointing that way. Two consecutive months of price gains, the S/L ratio at its highest point of 2026, DOM trending down, and inventory tightening year-over-year are all consistent with a market that has found its floor. That doesn’t mean a sharp price recovery is imminent — the most likely scenario is gradual stabilization followed by modest gains as the market normalizes. But the evidence for peak pessimism being behind us is growing stronger each month.
Why did West Lincoln’s sales jump so dramatically?
West Lincoln went from 10 sales in June to 19 in July — a 90% MoM increase and 171% YoY increase from 7 sales last July. This is a very low-volume market where individual transactions have an outsized impact on percentages. Seven additional sales can produce a 100%+ YoY swing. The 76% S/L ratio is genuine signal, but interpret the percentage changes with caution. The underlying story is that West Lincoln has been consistently active for several months now, and that consistency is meaningful.
What does the Bank of Canada holding rates for the sixth time mean for real estate?
Six consecutive holds at 2.25% has given the market something it desperately needed: predictability. Buyers can budget their mortgage payments with confidence. Sellers know the buyer pool isn’t being artificially compressed by surprise rate hikes. This stability is one of the key reasons the market has been able to stabilize and begin recovering. As long as rates hold steady, the housing market has a stable foundation to recover from. Any eventual rate cut would be a further tailwind for demand.
Is it a good time to list my home this fall?
The case for a fall listing is strong. The market has been strengthening month-over-month since May. Inventory is significantly lower than a year ago, meaning you face less competition. The S/L ratio is at its highest of the year and approaching balanced market conditions. Buyer confidence is improving with six months of rate stability. September and October are historically among the most active months of the year. If you’ve been waiting for the right moment, the data suggests fall 2026 is shaping up to be the best listing environment since early 2025.
