Published July 19, 2026
Niagara Real Estate Market Update - June 2026
June 2026
Real Estate Market
A complete breakdown of every municipality, every property type, and every trend that matters — written plainly so you can act on it.
The big picture
June 2026 Market Overview
June 2026 delivered the clearest positive signal of the year: for the first time in 2026, residential sales were up year-over-year. 615 homes sold across Niagara — a 5.1% increase from 585 in June 2025. Combined with May’s month-over-month improvement, the data shows a market that is gaining momentum through the summer, not losing it.
Month-over-month, sales grew another 6.4% from May’s 578. That’s two consecutive months of sales growth. The sales-to-listings ratio improved to 38.7%, up from 36% in May. Pelham hit 58% and Welland reached 50% — both approaching balanced market conditions. The broader picture is one of steady, quiet recovery.
The HPI benchmark came in at $571,300 — down 6.5% year-over-year but holding relatively steady on a month-over-month basis (-0.7% from May). Prices are no longer in free-fall. The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% on June 10th, providing continued certainty for buyers and sellers alike.
June marks a genuine turning point. The first year-over-year sales increase of 2026, back-to-back monthly sales growth, improving S/L ratios, and stable interest rates all point in the same direction. The market isn’t fully recovered — prices are still down year-over-year — but the trajectory has clearly shifted. Buyers who were waiting for peak pessimism may have already missed it.
Pricing trends
Home Prices — Softening Slowly, Stabilizing
The MLS® HPI composite benchmark for Niagara came in at $571,300 in June 2026 — down 6.5% from $610,700 in June 2025, but only 0.7% below May’s $575,300. The month-over-month pace of decline has slowed dramatically compared to earlier in 2026, suggesting prices are finding a floor.
Year-over-year comparisons will continue to look challenging through the summer as we compare against a stronger second half of 2025. But the directional story month-to-month is one of stabilization. West Lincoln’s benchmark actually ticked up slightly month-over-month, and Niagara-on-the-Lake held essentially flat.
What is the HPI? The MLS® Home Price Index Benchmark tracks the price of a consistent “typical” home over time — in Niagara, aged 51–99 years, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, masonry and siding exterior, municipal services. It removes the distortion caused by different mixes of homes selling each month and is far more reliable than average sale price.
Sales activity
Sales — The First Year-over-Year Gain of 2026
615 homes sold across Niagara in June 2026 — up 5.1% from 585 in June 2025. This is significant. Every month of 2026 up to this point had shown year-over-year sales declines. June broke that streak, confirming what the monthly trend has been suggesting: buyer activity is genuinely recovering.
The standout municipality this month is Niagara-on-the-Lake, where sales nearly doubled year-over-year from 21 to 38 (+81%). Fort Erie had a strong month too, up 26.8% YoY (56 to 71 sales). Welland surged 21.5% YoY. These aren’t flukes — they reflect real demand returning to markets that had been quiet.
On the other side, West Lincoln saw sales drop from 15 to just 10 (-33.3% YoY) and Lincoln fell from 40 to 31 (-22.5%). These are low-volume markets where single-month swings can be dramatic and shouldn’t be over-interpreted.
Inventory & market pace
Inventory and Days on Market
1,591 new listings came to market in June 2026 — down 7.7% from 1,724 in June 2025. Inventory continues to tighten year-over-year, which is helping support prices and improving conditions for sellers. With fewer competing listings, well-priced properties are standing out more.
The average days on market rose slightly to 45 days in June, up from 41 in May. This is a modest increase and not cause for alarm — June can naturally see slightly longer DOM as the spring urgency fades into summer pace. St. Catharines averaged just 31 days — the fastest market in the region. West Lincoln averaged 66 days — the slowest. Pelham improved dramatically, dropping from 38 days in May to just 32 days in June.
Market balance
Sales-to-Listings Ratio — The Market Is Tightening
The region-wide S/L ratio improved to 38.7% in June, up from 36% in May. Still a buyer’s market overall — but the direction is clear. Pelham hit 58%, Welland reached 50%, and St. Catharines sits at 38%. The gap between the most active markets and the slowest is widening.
Year-over-year data
June 2025 vs June 2026 — Full Municipal Breakdown
All data sourced from the Niagara Association of REALTORS® MLS® System. Price decreases in red. Sales increases in green. DOM decreases (faster selling) in green.
| Area | New Listings | Sales | HPI Benchmark | Avg DOM | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2026 | |
| Fort Erie | 149 | 182+22.1% | 56 | 71+26.8% | $526,500 | $489,000−7.1% | 58 | 59+1.7% |
| Grimsby | 123 | 107−13.0% | 39 | 35−10.3% | $725,400 | $674,400−7.0% | 32 | 42+31.2% |
| Lincoln | 82 | 77−6.1% | 40 | 31−22.5% | $721,300 | $668,000−7.4% | 32 | 39+21.9% |
| Niagara Falls | 337 | 279−17.2% | 98 | 93−5.1% | $607,600 | $562,300−7.5% | 41 | 38−7.3% |
| Niagara-on-the-Lake | 114 | 117+2.6% | 21 | 38+81.0% | $918,000 | $866,300−5.6% | 76 | 46−39.5% |
| Pelham | 69 | 60−13.0% | 30 | 35+16.7% | $792,900 | $754,200−4.9% | 45 | 32−28.9% |
| Port Colborne/Wainfleet | 95 | 104+9.5% | 46 | 42−8.7% | $505,400 | $467,200−7.6% | 49 | 58+18.4% |
| St. Catharines | 394 | 388−1.5% | 142 | 149+4.9% | $555,800 | $522,900−5.9% | 34 | 31−8.8% |
| Thorold | 106 | 88−17.0% | 33 | 32−3.0% | $620,800 | $573,300−7.7% | 29 | 38+31.0% |
| Welland | 232 | 157−32.3% | 65 | 79+21.5% | $526,300 | $495,700−5.8% | 38 | 46+21.1% |
| West Lincoln | 23 | 32+39.1% | 15 | 10−33.3% | $692,400 | $684,300−1.2% | 45 | 66+46.7% |
| Niagara Totals | 1,724 | 1,591 −7.7% | 585 | 615 +5.1% | $610,700 | $571,300 −6.5% | 44 | 45 +2.3% |
Month-over-month data
May 2026 vs June 2026 — Momentum Continues
Two months of consecutive sales growth. Port Colborne surged 40% MoM. Pelham jumped 45.8%. Fort Erie up 22.4%. Welland up 23.4%. The positive momentum is broad-based — not concentrated in one or two markets.
| Area | New Listings | Sales | HPI Benchmark | Avg DOM | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Jun 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | May 2026 | Jun 2026 | |
| Fort Erie | 156 | 182+16.7% | 58 | 71+22.4% | $492,200 | $489,000−0.7% | 52 | 59+13.5% |
| Grimsby | 100 | 107+7.0% | 32 | 35+9.4% | $679,500 | $674,400−0.8% | 29 | 42+44.8% |
| Lincoln | 95 | 77−18.9% | 32 | 31−3.1% | $671,900 | $668,000−0.6% | 35 | 39+11.4% |
| Niagara Falls | 280 | 279−0.4% | 88 | 93+5.7% | $562,900 | $562,300−0.1% | 40 | 38−5.0% |
| Niagara-on-the-Lake | 109 | 117+7.3% | 41 | 38−7.3% | $861,300 | $866,300+0.6% | 51 | 46−9.8% |
| Pelham | 63 | 60−4.8% | 24 | 35+45.8% | $765,200 | $754,200−1.4% | 38 | 32−15.8% |
| Port Colborne/Wainfleet | 93 | 104+11.8% | 30 | 42+40.0% | $474,100 | $467,200−1.5% | 41 | 58+41.5% |
| St. Catharines | 385 | 388+0.8% | 165 | 149−9.7% | $527,500 | $522,900−0.9% | 36 | 31−13.9% |
| Thorold | 102 | 88−13.7% | 30 | 32+6.7% | $578,200 | $573,300−0.8% | 43 | 38−11.6% |
| Welland | 176 | 157−10.8% | 64 | 79+23.4% | $503,200 | $495,700−1.5% | 39 | 46+17.9% |
| West Lincoln | 18 | 32+77.8% | 14 | 10−28.6% | $680,900 | $684,300+0.5% | 47 | 66+40.4% |
| Niagara Totals | 1,577 | 1,591 +0.9% | 578 | 615 +6.4% | $575,300 | $571,300 −0.7% | 41 | 45 +9.8% |
Segment analysis
By Property Type — Gradual Softening Across All Segments
All four property types continued to soften year-over-year in June, though the pace of decline is modest month-over-month. The 2-storey detached benchmark dropped 0.8% MoM to $611,000. Bungalows (1-storey) held essentially flat at $578,800 (−0.1% MoM). Townhouses slipped 1.3% to $521,000. Apartments declined 1.0% to $339,900 but their 13.5% YoY decline remains the steepest of any segment.
Apartment/condo note: At −13.5% year-over-year, condos and apartments continue to underperform all other segments by a wide margin. If you’re a buyer targeting this segment, you have the most negotiating room of any property type in the current market. Sellers in this category need to price aggressively relative to recent comparable sales.
Municipal analysis
Every Municipality — Deep Dive
St. Catharines
Fastest DOM in the region at 31 days, down from 36 in May. 149 sales make it the highest-volume market. Prices held relatively steady MoM (−0.9%). The most consistently active market in Niagara.
Pelham
The most improved market of June. Sales up 45.8% MoM and 16.7% YoY. DOM dropped from 38 to 32 days. A 58% S/L ratio is the highest in the region and approaching seller territory. A major turnaround from earlier in 2026.
Welland
Welland hit 50% S/L — a balanced market. 79 sales is a strong month, up 21.5% YoY and 23.4% MoM. The $495,700 benchmark keeps it one of Niagara’s most affordable freehold markets.
Niagara Falls
Still the highest listing volume market with 279 new properties. 33% S/L gives buyers strong leverage. DOM improved to 38 days (down from 40 in May). A market with lots of selection for patient buyers.
Niagara-on-the-Lake
Sales nearly doubled year-over-year (21→38, +81%). DOM dropped dramatically from 76 to 46 days YoY. The luxury market here is showing sustained demand. Prices edged up 0.6% MoM — a positive signal.
Fort Erie
Strong sales growth: +26.8% YoY and +22.4% MoM. 71 sales is one of Fort Erie’s best months in recent memory. Below $490K benchmark keeps it Niagara’s most affordable detached market. DOM at 59 days reflects the premium time needed at higher price points.
Grimsby
Sales down slightly from strong months earlier in 2026, but still 33% S/L gives buyers clear leverage at the $674K price point. DOM rose to 42 days from 29 in May. A premium-priced buyer’s market.
Thorold
Thorold had a modest rebound from May’s tough month, with sales up 6.7% MoM to 32. DOM improved to 38 days. Still 36% S/L means buyers have the upper hand. Prices down 7.7% YoY, the steepest decline in the region.
Port Colborne/Wainfleet
40% S/L is the highest this market has been in over a year. Sales surged 40% MoM (30→42). Still the most affordable benchmark in the region at $467,200. DOM rose to 58 days but sales activity is clearly picking up.
Lincoln
40% S/L is a notable improvement for Lincoln, which has oscillated dramatically this year. Sales down slightly MoM but YoY comparison weakens as we lap a stronger 2025 period. At $668K, Lincoln remains one of Niagara’s higher-priced markets.
West Lincoln
Only 10 sales in June — the lowest volume market in the region. 66-day DOM is the longest anywhere in Niagara. However, prices are holding up remarkably well YoY (−1.2%), and the benchmark actually ticked up 0.5% MoM. Low volume makes data volatile.
Practical guidance
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers
Still a buyer’s market regionally — but conditions are improving for sellers.
- →The 38.7% S/L ratio still favours buyers overall. But with two consecutive months of sales growth and improving S/L ratios, the window of maximum buyer leverage may be narrowing in some markets.
- →Apartments remain the most negotiable segment at −13.5% YoY. If a condo is on your list, you still have meaningful room to negotiate below asking.
- →Pelham (58% S/L) and Welland (50% S/L) are no longer buyer’s markets. If you’re targeting either, act with more urgency and don’t expect the same negotiating leverage as earlier in 2026.
- →Niagara Falls and Grimsby remain deep buyer’s markets at 33% S/L each. Plenty of selection, longer DOM, good negotiating room at those price points.
- →Bank of Canada held at 2.25% on June 10th. Rate certainty continues to support confident decision-making for buyers planning their purchase.
For sellers
The market is improving — don’t mistake recovery for peak conditions.
- →The first YoY sales increase of 2026 is genuinely encouraging. If you’ve been waiting for signs of recovery before listing, this is one. But the region is still at 38.7% S/L — don’t overprice expecting a bidding war.
- →Pelham sellers are in the best position in the region right now. At 58% S/L and 32-day DOM, this is the closest to a seller’s market anywhere in Niagara. List with confidence, price firmly.
- →Inventory is down 7.7% year-over-year. Fewer competing listings means your home gets more attention from active buyers. This is a real advantage right now.
- →Thorold and Grimsby sellers face the most challenging conditions, with prices down 7-8% YoY and deep buyer’s market S/L ratios. Precise pricing and strong presentation are non-negotiable.
- →The summer market traditionally slows in July and August as families travel. If you’re thinking of listing, doing so sooner captures the buyers who are active now before the summer lull.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Niagara market recovering?
The June data makes a strong case for recovery. First year-over-year sales increase of 2026, back-to-back months of sales growth, improving S/L ratios in multiple markets, and stable interest rates all point in the right direction. Prices are still down year-over-year, but the rate of decline has slowed dramatically month-over-month. The most honest read is: the market is recovering, but not recovered. If you’re waiting for the absolute bottom to buy, you may already be past it in some markets.
Why did the Bank of Canada hold rates again?
The Bank held its overnight rate at 2.25% on June 10th. While domestic economic weakness would normally call for cuts, ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariff impacts have introduced inflationary pressures that make cutting rates risky. The Bank is balancing two competing risks — recession if they hold too long, inflation if they cut too soon. For real estate, steady rates mean buyers can plan with certainty, which is generally positive for market activity.
Which municipalities are the best opportunity for buyers right now?
It depends on what you’re looking for. For maximum leverage and selection, Niagara Falls and Grimsby (both at 33% S/L) give you the most negotiating room. For affordability, Fort Erie ($489K benchmark) and Port Colborne ($467K) are the most accessible freehold markets. For a market showing momentum and improving conditions, Niagara-on-the-Lake stands out with sales nearly doubling year-over-year. For value relative to price, Welland at 50% S/L and $495K benchmark is a balanced market with reasonable pricing.
Should I list my home this summer?
The case for listing now is stronger than it’s been all year. Sales activity is up, inventory is down year-over-year giving you less competition, and buyer confidence is improving with stable rates. That said, July and August traditionally see slower activity as families travel — so listing in early July captures buyers who are active before the summer slowdown. If you wait until September, you’ll get the fall market which historically picks up in late September. Both are reasonable strategies depending on your urgency and market.
How should I interpret the dramatic swings in smaller markets like West Lincoln?
With caution. West Lincoln had only 10 sales in June — and only 14 in May. When you’re working with such small numbers, one or two extra sales in a given month can make the percentage change look enormous. A −28.6% decline from May to June sounds alarming but represents just 4 fewer sales. Similarly, the 66-day average DOM is pulled up by a handful of properties that took longer to sell. Focus on the broader trends across multiple months rather than getting caught up in any single month’s data in low-volume markets.
