Published June 10, 2026
Niagara Real Estate Market Update - May 2026
May 2026
Real Estate Market
A complete breakdown of every municipality, every property type, and every trend that matters — written plainly so you can act on it.
The big picture
May 2026 Market Overview
May brought the most encouraging signs Niagara has seen in over a year. For the first time in 2026, the HPI benchmark price ticked upward month-over-month — from $573,700 in April to $575,300 in May, a gain of 0.3%. Small, yes. But directionally significant after months of consecutive declines.
Homes are also selling considerably faster. The average days on market dropped from 49 in April to just 41 in May — a 16.3% improvement in a single month. That tells you buyers who entered the spring market are moving with more urgency, and well-priced homes are finding buyers quickly.
565 homes sold across Niagara in May 2026, down 9.9% from 627 in May 2025. Year-over-year comparisons remain challenging as 2025 was a stronger spring. But the month-to-month trajectory is positive and the data suggests we may be approaching a floor on prices.
The region-wide S/L ratio sits at 36% — still a buyer’s market — but the month-over-month data tells a more nuanced story. Prices ticked up, DOM dropped significantly, and West Lincoln hit 78% S/L. The market may be finding its floor. That doesn’t mean prices are heading sharply higher, but the one-directional decline of late 2025 and early 2026 may be behind us.
Pricing trends
Home Prices — The First Positive Month of 2026
The MLS® HPI composite benchmark for Niagara came in at $575,300 in May 2026 — down 8.0% from $625,500 in May 2025, but up 0.3% from April’s $573,700. That month-over-month gain is the first positive price movement of 2026 and a meaningful signal worth watching.
Year-over-year, the 8.0% decline is steeper than April’s 6.3% largely because May 2025 was a stronger month. That comparison will likely ease as we move through the summer and begin lapping a weaker second half of 2025. The more important number right now is the MoM direction — and it’s pointing up for the first time in months.
What is the HPI? The MLS® Home Price Index Benchmark tracks the price of a consistent “typical” home over time — in Niagara, aged 51–99 years, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, masonry and siding exterior, municipal services. It removes the distortion caused by different mixes of homes selling each month. Far more reliable than average sale price.
Sales activity
Sales — Down Year-over-Year, Stabilizing Month-to-Month
565 homes sold across Niagara in May 2026 — down 9.9% from 627 in May 2025, but essentially flat versus April’s 560 sales (+0.9%). The year-over-year decline reflects a stronger May 2025 comparison period more than a deteriorating current market.
The standout story this month is Niagara-on-the-Lake — sales more than doubled from 19 in April to 40 in May, pushing the S/L ratio to 37% and giving sellers in that market meaningful momentum. West Lincoln also had a strong month, with 14 sales on just 18 listings — a 78% S/L ratio, the highest in the region. Port Colborne surged from 18 to 29 sales MoM (+61%).
On the other side, Thorold had a tough month — sales dropped from 45 in April to just 28 in May (-37.8%). Niagara Falls also pulled back from 106 to 85 sales (-19.8% MoM).
Inventory & market pace
Inventory and Days on Market
1,574 new listings came to market in May 2026 — down 18.2% from 1,925 in May 2025. This is the sharpest inventory decline of the year so far and is one reason prices found some support in May. Fewer listings means less competition among sellers.
The average days on market dropped significantly from 49 days in April to just 41 days in May — a 16.3% improvement month-over-month. This is the clearest signal that buyers are more engaged and motivated right now than they were just a month ago.
Grimsby led the region with homes averaging just 29 days. St. Catharines (36 days) and Welland (38 days) were also fast-moving. NOTL and West Lincoln both averaged 52 and 47 days respectively — slower, but both showing strong sales activity suggesting homes are priced appropriately when they do sell.
Market balance
Sales-to-Listings Ratio — Who Has the Leverage?
The sales-to-listings ratio measures what percentage of available listings sold in a given month. Below 40% = buyer’s market. 40–60% = balanced. Above 60% = seller’s market. Region-wide Niagara sits at 36% — still a buyer’s market overall — but West Lincoln hit 78%, firmly in seller territory, and St. Catharines reached 42%, on the cusp of balance.
Year-over-year data
May 2025 vs May 2026 — Full Municipal Breakdown
All data sourced from the Niagara Association of REALTORS® MLS® System. Price decreases shown in red. Sales increases in green. DOM decreases (homes selling faster) in green.
| Area | New Listings | Sales | HPI Benchmark | Avg DOM | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2026 | |
| Fort Erie | 182 | 156−14.3% | 59 | 55−6.8% | $545,900 | $492,200−9.8% | 57 | 52−8.8% |
| Grimsby | 142 | 100−29.6% | 34 | 32−5.9% | $723,300 | $679,500−6.1% | 32 | 29−9.4% |
| Lincoln | 106 | 94−11.3% | 39 | 32−17.9% | $747,900 | $671,900−10.2% | 37 | 35−5.4% |
| Niagara Falls | 352 | 280−20.5% | 93 | 85−8.6% | $609,100 | $562,900−7.6% | 38 | 40+5.3% |
| Niagara-on-the-Lake | 122 | 109−10.7% | 31 | 40+29.0% | $945,000 | $861,300−8.9% | 36 | 52+44.4% |
| Pelham | 82 | 63−23.2% | 23 | 24+4.3% | $846,800 | $765,200−9.6% | 36 | 38+5.6% |
| Port Colborne/Wainfleet | 113 | 92−18.6% | 38 | 29−23.7% | $527,300 | $474,100−10.1% | 62 | 40−35.5% |
| St. Catharines | 403 | 384−4.7% | 182 | 162−11.0% | $557,500 | $527,500−5.4% | 26 | 36+38.5% |
| Thorold | 153 | 102−33.3% | 40 | 28−30.0% | $653,700 | $578,200−11.5% | 30 | 46+53.3% |
| Welland | 244 | 176−27.9% | 77 | 64−16.9% | $563,400 | $503,200−10.7% | 40 | 38−5.0% |
| West Lincoln | 26 | 18−30.8% | 11 | 14+27.3% | $749,400 | $680,900−9.1% | 30 | 47+56.7% |
| Niagara Totals | 1,925 | 1,574 −18.2% | 627 | 565 −9.9% | $625,500 | $575,300 −8.0% | 39 | 41 +5.1% |
Month-over-month data
April 2026 vs May 2026 — Encouraging Signals
The month-over-month comparison is where the green shoots are. Prices up 0.3%, DOM down 16.3%, and several municipalities showing strong sales surges. NOTL more than doubled in sales. West Lincoln hit seller territory. Port Colborne rebounded sharply.
| Area | New Listings | Sales | HPI Benchmark | Avg DOM | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | Apr 2026 | May 2026 | |
| Fort Erie | 175 | 156−10.9% | 43 | 55+27.9% | $492,900 | $492,200−0.1% | 49 | 52+6.1% |
| Grimsby | 90 | 100+11.1% | 40 | 32−20.0% | $677,900 | $679,500+0.2% | 61 | 29−52.5% |
| Lincoln | 56 | 94+67.9% | 35 | 32−8.6% | $678,300 | $671,900−0.9% | 35 | 350.0% |
| Niagara Falls | 301 | 280−7.0% | 106 | 85−19.8% | $563,500 | $562,900−0.1% | 51 | 40−21.6% |
| Niagara-on-the-Lake | 90 | 109+21.1% | 19 | 40+110.5% | $861,400 | $861,300−0.0% | 68 | 52−23.5% |
| Pelham | 70 | 63−10.0% | 17 | 24+41.2% | $763,000 | $765,200+0.3% | 76 | 38−50.0% |
| Port Colborne/Wainfleet | 68 | 92+35.3% | 18 | 29+61.1% | $470,900 | $474,100+0.7% | 63 | 40−36.5% |
| St. Catharines | 316 | 384+21.5% | 152 | 162+6.6% | $522,200 | $527,500+1.0% | 40 | 36−10.0% |
| Thorold | 112 | 102−8.9% | 45 | 28−37.8% | $581,400 | $578,200−0.6% | 44 | 46+4.5% |
| Welland | 173 | 176+1.7% | 73 | 64−12.3% | $500,000 | $503,200+0.6% | 31 | 38+22.6% |
| West Lincoln | 34 | 18−47.1% | 12 | 14+16.7% | $669,200 | $680,900+1.7% | 26 | 47+80.8% |
| Niagara Totals | 1,485 | 1,574 +6.0% | 560 | 565 +0.9% | $573,700 | $575,300 +0.3% | 49 | 41 −16.3% |
Segment analysis
By Property Type — Not All Homes Are Equal
The most interesting shift this month is in bungalows and townhouses, both of which showed positive month-over-month price movement. 1-storey homes gained 2.1% MoM to $580,800 — actually now sitting higher than 2-storey detached at $620,000. Townhouses gained 0.9% to $525,200. These segments appear to be stabilizing or recovering.
Two-storey detached homes dipped 1.5% MoM to $620,000. Apartments continued their decline, down 1.3% MoM and 13.1% year-over-year to $343,200. The condo/apartment segment remains under the most pressure of any property type.
Interesting reversal: For the first time in recent memory, 1-storey bungalows are benchmarking higher than 2-storey detached homes in Niagara ($580,800 vs $620,000). This partly reflects the strong MoM gain in bungalows (+2.1%) while 2-storeys dipped slightly. Bungalow demand from downsizers and retirees may be providing price support in that segment.
Municipal analysis
Every Municipality — Deep Dive
West Lincoln
The standout market of May 2026. A 78% S/L ratio is firmly seller territory. Only 18 listings and 14 sales. Prices up 1.7% MoM. Small volume, but powerful signal when it moves like this.
St. Catharines
The most resilient major market in the region. Prices up 1.0% MoM, DOM down to 36 days, and 42% S/L edging toward balance. The best-performing large market in Niagara right now.
Niagara Falls
Still the highest listing volume market with 280 new properties but only 85 sales at 30% S/L. Sales pulled back 19.8% from April. Buyers have significant leverage here.
Niagara-on-the-Lake
Sales more than doubled MoM from 19 to 40. A dramatic turnaround from April’s deep buyer market conditions. DOM dropped from 68 to 52 days. The luxury market here is showing real life.
Thorold
Thorold had the roughest month of any market. Sales dropped 37.8% from April, the steepest MoM decline in the region. YoY price down 11.5%. At 27% S/L, sellers need to price aggressively.
Fort Erie
Sales rebounded strongly from 43 in April to 55 in May (+27.9%). Below $500K benchmark makes this Niagara’s most affordable detached market. DOM held steady at 52 days.
Grimsby
Grimsby’s DOM story is the most dramatic in the region — dropped from 61 days in April to just 29 in May. The fastest-moving market in Niagara this month despite only 32% S/L.
Welland
Welland prices edged up 0.6% MoM to $503,200. DOM increased slightly from 31 to 38 days but remains well below average. Consistent, affordable, relatively liquid market.
Lincoln
Lincoln slipped from April’s 63% S/L standout to 34% in May as new listings surged +67.9% while sales held flat. The market can swing dramatically month-to-month in lower-volume areas.
Port Colborne/Wainfleet
Strong MoM rebound — sales jumped from 18 to 29 (+61%). Prices up 0.7% MoM. DOM dropped dramatically from 63 to 40 days. Most affordable benchmark in the region. A market worth watching.
Pelham
Significant improvement from April. DOM dropped from 76 to 38 days, sales up 41.2% MoM, and prices edged up 0.3%. After a brutal April, Pelham showed real signs of life in May.
Practical guidance
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers
Still a buyer’s market — but the window may be narrowing.
- →The 36% S/L ratio still favours buyers in most areas. But prices ticked up and DOM dropped in May — conditions are slowly shifting. Acting sooner rather than waiting for further drops is increasingly defensible.
- →Apartments are still down 13.1% year-over-year. If condos or apartments are on your list, this remains the segment with the most negotiating room.
- →Grimsby moved fast in May — 29-day average DOM means you need to be decisive there. Don’t assume you have weeks to think on a well-priced Grimsby listing.
- →Port Colborne and Thorold still have deep buyer conditions. These are the markets where you can take your time and negotiate hardest.
- →Bank of Canada expected to hold rates at 2.25%. Rate certainty is valuable for budgeting — use it to plan your purchase confidently.
For sellers
Positive signals in May — but pricing discipline still wins.
- →May’s price increase and faster DOM are encouraging, but the region is still at 36% S/L. This is not the time to overprice expecting multiple offers — correctly priced homes are moving, overpriced ones are still sitting.
- →St. Catharines sellers are in the best position of any major market. At 42% S/L and 36-day DOM with prices up 1% MoM, conditions here are genuinely near balanced.
- →Inventory dropped 18.2% year-over-year. If you’ve been waiting for less competition to list, you have it right now. Fewer listings means your property gets more attention.
- →DOM dropped 16% from April to May. Buyers are moving faster. Make sure your home is show-ready from day one because the window to capture serious buyers is narrowing.
- →Thorold and Niagara Falls sellers face the toughest conditions right now. Deep buyer markets at 27-30% S/L require aggressive pricing and exceptional presentation to stand out.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Does the May price increase mean the market is recovering?
One month doesn’t make a trend, but it’s an encouraging signal. The 0.3% MoM price increase combined with a significant drop in days on market (49 to 41 days) suggests buyers are becoming more active and competitive. Whether this is the beginning of a sustained recovery or a one-month blip will become clearer over the next few months. The most honest answer is: it’s too early to call a recovery, but it’s the best set of month-over-month indicators we’ve seen in 2026.
Why is the year-over-year decline so steep at −8%?
May 2025 was a relatively strong month for Niagara, so we’re comparing against a high base. As we move through the summer and begin comparing against a weaker second half of 2025, the year-over-year numbers will start to look better — not necessarily because the market is getting stronger, but because the comparison period is weaker. The month-over-month data is a more reliable indicator of current momentum.
What is the Bank of Canada expected to do with interest rates?
The consensus heading into the June 10th announcement is that the Bank of Canada will hold steady at 2.25%. While the domestic economy is showing weakness that might normally call for rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariff impacts have introduced inflationary pressures that make cutting rates risky. The Bank is expected to hold its current position until there is more clarity on the inflation picture. Stable rates are generally positive for real estate as they allow buyers to plan with certainty.
Is now a good time to sell in Niagara?
It depends heavily on where you are. St. Catharines and West Lincoln are operating near balanced conditions — a reasonable time to list if you’re priced correctly. In deep buyer markets like Thorold, Niagara Falls, or Port Colborne, conditions remain challenging. Inventory is down significantly year-over-year, which means less competition when you do list. If you have flexibility on timing, the improving month-over-month data suggests summer 2026 could be better than late 2025 was.
Why did Lincoln’s S/L ratio drop so much from April to May?
Lincoln went from a 63% S/L ratio in April to 34% in May because new listings surged 67.9% (from 56 to 94) while sales held essentially flat (35 to 32). This illustrates why you can’t read too much into a single month’s data in smaller markets. A wave of new listings in any given month can dramatically shift the ratio without indicating any fundamental change in demand. Lincoln remains a healthy market — it simply had an unusually high number of new listings in May.
