Published October 6, 2026
Niagara Real Estate Market Update - September 2026
September 2026
Real Estate Market
Four consecutive months of price stability. Listings rebounded. Sales held firm. The fall market is exactly where it should be.
The big picture
September 2026: The Floor Is In. The Fall Market Is Healthy.
September delivered exactly what the data had been pointing toward. The storm-delayed listings from August came back to market — new listings rose 27.4% month-over-month to 1,470. Sales held steady at 502, essentially unchanged from August’s 506. And the HPI benchmark came in at $567,400 — down just 0.4% from August. That is the fourth consecutive month of price stability.
Zoom out and the picture is clear: from June through September, prices have moved in a range of just $4,400 — from $571,300 to $567,400. In a market that saw prices fall sharply through 2025 and into early 2026, that kind of stability over four months is a genuine signal. The floor is in. The NAR chair noted that the S/L ratio shift from August mirrors the exact same seasonal pattern as September 2025 — this is normal fall market behaviour, not deterioration.
Year-over-year, the -4.6% HPI decline is the smallest YoY price gap of 2026. The comparisons are improving every month as we lap the weaker back half of 2025. Niagara Falls posted a standout month — 93 sales, up 25.7% year-over-year. Pelham doubled its sales YoY. Grimsby up 25.8%. The fall market has real buyer activity in it.
Four consecutive months of prices moving less than 0.5% per month. The YoY gap narrowing to -4.6% — the best of 2026. Sales holding steady while listings normalize. This is what a market finding its floor looks like. Anyone waiting for prices to drop further is betting against four straight months of data pointing the other way.
Pricing trends
Prices — Four Months of Stability, Tightest YoY Gap of 2026
The HPI benchmark of $567,400 represents a -4.6% year-over-year change — the smallest annual price gap since the start of 2026. Month-over-month, the -0.4% dip is negligible. Since June, the benchmark has moved within a $4,400 range. That is price stability, plain and simple.
The NAR chair specifically highlighted month-over-month price stability as giving buyers and sellers a predictable baseline for fall real estate decisions. That predictability matters: it means the information you use to value a home today is still valid tomorrow. That hasn’t been true for much of the past two years.
The 2026 price trend in one line: Jan −8.2% YoY → Feb −7.8% → Mar −7.1% → Apr −6.3% → May −8.0% → Jun −6.5% → Jul −5.5% → Aug −6.2% → Sep −4.6%. The direction is clear.
Sales & inventory
Sales Held, Listings Rebounded — The Fall Market Is Active
502 sales and 1,470 new listings. Sales were essentially unchanged from August (-0.8% MoM) and virtually flat year-over-year (-2.0%). New listings surged 27.4% from August as the storm-delayed inventory finally hit the market — exactly as predicted. Year-over-year, listings are still down 15.9% from September 2025, which continues to support prices by limiting the supply buyers can choose from.
The standout performers this month: Niagara Falls posted 93 sales — up 25.7% YoY and the highest single-market sales count in the region. Pelham doubled its sales year-over-year from 16 to 24. Grimsby jumped 25.8% YoY to 39 sales. These aren’t anomalies — they reflect real fall demand that has been building.
On the flip side, St. Catharines saw a significant YoY drop (132→100, -24.2%) and West Lincoln fell from 16 to 10 (-37.5% YoY). Both are worth watching, but neither is a structural story — St. Catharines remains the highest-volume market and West Lincoln’s small sample size makes it volatile month-to-month.
Market pace
Days on Market — Steady at 46, Fastest in Grimsby
The regional average of 46 days is unchanged year-over-year — a sign of a stable, consistent market pace. Grimsby (33 days) and Lincoln (40 days) are the fastest markets. Fort Erie (72 days) remains the longest, driven partly by its higher price point in certain sub-markets. Pelham jumped to 53 days MoM from 49 — worth watching but within normal range for a premium market.
Market balance
S/L at 34.1% — Normal Seasonal Fall, Still Better Than Last Year
The S/L ratio dropped from 43.2% in August to 34.1% in September as listings rebounded. This is exactly the seasonal pattern the NAR chair described — and it mirrors what happened in September 2025. Crucially, September 2025’s S/L was 29.1%. This September is 34.1% — meaningfully better year-over-year. The market is in a more balanced position than it was at the same time last year.
Year-over-year data
September 2025 vs September 2026 — Full Municipal Breakdown
| Area | New Listings | Sales | HPI Benchmark | Avg DOM | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2026 | Sep 2025 | Sep 2026 | Sep 2025 | Sep 2026 | Sep 2025 | Sep 2026 | |
| Fort Erie | 183 | 125−31.7% | 63 | 56−11.1% | $517,500 | $483,300−6.6% | 73 | 72−1.4% |
| Grimsby | 105 | 95−9.5% | 31 | 39+25.8% | $712,300 | $673,700−5.4% | 36 | 33−8.3% |
| Lincoln | 93 | 82−11.8% | 27 | 29+7.4% | $712,200 | $653,400−8.3% | 41 | 40−2.4% |
| Niagara Falls | 345 | 276−20.0% | 74 | 93+25.7% | $587,200 | $560,500−4.5% | 36 | 43+19.4% |
| Niagara-on-the-Lake | 100 | 92−8.0% | 30 | 27−10.0% | $893,900 | $852,500−4.6% | 56 | 42−25.0% |
| Pelham | 60 | 58−3.3% | 16 | 24+50.0% | $767,300 | $746,700−2.7% | 37 | 53+43.2% |
| Port Colborne/Wainfleet | 85 | 98+15.3% | 30 | 300.0% | $496,600 | $466,000−6.2% | 59 | 51−13.6% |
| St. Catharines | 408 | 351−14.0% | 132 | 100−24.2% | $540,200 | $517,700−4.2% | 43 | 42−2.3% |
| Thorold | 126 | 71−43.7% | 26 | 260.0% | $605,500 | $567,400−6.3% | 52 | 43−17.3% |
| Welland | 213 | 195−8.5% | 67 | 68+1.5% | $506,800 | $492,300−2.9% | 40 | 41+2.5% |
| West Lincoln | 29 | 27−6.9% | 16 | 10−37.5% | $681,400 | $647,800−4.9% | 32 | 51+59.4% |
| Niagara Totals | 1,747 | 1,470 −15.9% | 512 | 502 −2.0% | $594,700 | $567,400 −4.6% | 46 | 46 0.0% |
Month-over-month data
August 2026 vs September 2026 — Listings Back, Sales Steady
Listings surged 27.4% MoM as storm-delayed properties came to market. Sales held at -0.8%. Prices barely moved at -0.4%. Welland had a standout MoM with sales up 44.7% (47→68). Pelham bounced back 50% MoM (16→24).
| Area | New Listings | Sales | HPI Benchmark | Avg DOM | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | Aug 2026 | Sep 2026 | |
| Fort Erie | 131 | 125−4.6% | 56 | 560.0% | $494,300 | $483,300−2.2% | 56 | 72+28.6% |
| Grimsby | 71 | 95+33.8% | 38 | 39+2.6% | $673,100 | $673,700+0.1% | 34 | 33−2.9% |
| Lincoln | 54 | 82+51.9% | 32 | 29−9.4% | $658,900 | $653,400−0.8% | 37 | 40+8.1% |
| Niagara Falls | 219 | 276+26.0% | 112 | 93−17.0% | $559,200 | $560,500+0.2% | 48 | 43−10.4% |
| Niagara-on-the-Lake | 88 | 92+4.5% | 30 | 27−10.0% | $859,200 | $852,500−0.8% | 70 | 42−40.0% |
| Pelham | 38 | 58+52.6% | 16 | 24+50.0% | $744,300 | $746,700+0.3% | 49 | 53+8.2% |
| Port Colborne/Wainfleet | 70 | 98+40.0% | 24 | 30+25.0% | $473,500 | $466,000−1.6% | 45 | 51+13.3% |
| St. Catharines | 254 | 351+38.2% | 117 | 100−14.5% | $524,500 | $517,700−1.3% | 41 | 42+2.4% |
| Thorold | 74 | 71−4.1% | 23 | 26+13.0% | $564,800 | $567,400+0.5% | 41 | 43+4.9% |
| Welland | 132 | 195+47.7% | 47 | 68+44.7% | $488,800 | $492,300+0.7% | 42 | 41−2.4% |
| West Lincoln | 23 | 27+17.4% | 11 | 10−9.1% | $649,200 | $647,800−0.2% | 32 | 51+59.4% |
| Niagara Totals | 1,154 | 1,470 +27.4% | 506 | 502 −0.8% | $569,800 | $567,400 −0.4% | 45 | 46 +2.2% |
Segment analysis
By Property Type — 2-Storey Holds, Apartments Rise Again
The 2-storey detached benchmark held perfectly flat month-over-month at $616,700 — 0.0% MoM. That’s the most stable reading of any segment all year. Year-over-year, at -4.8%, it remains the most resilient segment. Apartments gained another 3.8% MoM to $355,400 — the second consecutive strong month for that segment after a difficult year. Townhouses pulled back 3.2% MoM to $513,700, the sharpest single-month drop for that segment in 2026. 1-storey (bungalows) dipped a modest -0.8% MoM to $564,700.
Apartment rebound worth watching: Two consecutive months of MoM gains (+3.8% in Aug, +3.8% in Sep) after being the weakest segment all year. It’s too early to call it a trend but if October shows a third gain, that would be a meaningful signal of renewed buyer interest in the condo/apartment segment.
Municipal analysis
Every Municipality — Deep Dive
Grimsby
Sales up 25.8% YoY (31→39) and 33-day DOM is the fastest in the region. Prices edged up 0.1% MoM. 41% S/L puts Grimsby in near-balanced territory. Consistently one of the more active fall markets in Niagara.
Pelham
Sales doubled year-over-year (16→24, +50%) and up 50% MoM from August. At -2.7% YoY, Pelham has the smallest price decline in the region. Prices up 0.3% MoM. At $746,700, it’s a premium market showing real resilience. 41% S/L near balanced.
Fort Erie
45% S/L is approaching balanced. Sales held flat MoM (56→56). DOM jumped to 72 days — highest in the region and elevated partly by higher-priced properties sitting longer. At $483,300, still one of Niagara’s most accessible freehold benchmarks.
Niagara Falls
93 sales — up 25.7% YoY and the highest volume of any municipality. Despite strong sales, a 34% S/L gives buyers leverage from the large listing pool. Prices +0.2% MoM. DOM improved to 43 days from 48. The most active buyer market in Niagara.
Welland
Welland had the strongest MoM sales jump — up 44.7% (47→68). Prices up 0.7% MoM. At -2.9% YoY, one of the smallest price declines in the region. Still a buyer’s market at 35% S/L but the activity level is picking up noticeably.
Lincoln
Lincoln listings surged 51.9% MoM (54→82) as pent-up supply hit the market. Sales dipped slightly (-9.4% MoM). The -8.3% YoY price decline is the largest in the region. 40-day DOM is efficient for the price point. Buyers have real leverage here.
Thorold
Sales held flat YoY (26→26) and prices edged up 0.5% MoM — a positive signal after months of pressure. DOM improved to 43 from 52 YoY. Still a buyer’s market at 37% S/L but signs of stabilization are emerging. Listings down 43.7% YoY — tightening supply.
St. Catharines
Sales fell 24.2% YoY (132→100) — a notable drop for the region’s highest-volume market. Listings rose 38.2% MoM as storm supply returned. The 28% S/L is the lowest in the region, meaning buyers have significant leverage. Prices down 1.3% MoM — the most pressure of any market this month.
NOTL
DOM dropped dramatically from 70 days in August to 42 in September — the single biggest DOM improvement in the region. Sales down slightly YoY and MoM. At $852,500 and 29% S/L, buyers still have room to negotiate. The DOM improvement suggests well-priced properties are moving efficiently.
Port Colborne/Wainfleet
Sales held flat YoY (30→30) with listings up 15.3%. Prices dipped 1.6% MoM. Still the most affordable benchmark in the region at $466,000. 31% S/L gives buyers clear leverage, but the flat YoY sales suggest underlying demand is at least stable.
West Lincoln
Only 10 sales — low volume means any percentage swing is dramatic. DOM jumped to 51 days from 32 in August. Prices essentially flat MoM (-0.2%). The 37% S/L is actually reasonable for this market. Interpret monthly swings here with caution given the small transaction count.
Practical guidance
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
For buyers
Good selection, stable prices — a solid window to buy before the market tightens further.
- →With 1,470 new listings in September, selection is good right now. Combine that with still-buyer-friendly S/L ratios in most markets and you have reasonable negotiating room while having decent inventory to choose from.
- →Prices have been flat for four months. The data no longer supports waiting for further declines. The -4.6% YoY gap is narrowing — as we lap a weaker 2025 in Q4, year-over-year comparisons will likely flip positive.
- →St. Catharines (28% S/L) and NOTL (29% S/L) offer the most buyer leverage right now. Grimsby (41% S/L) and Pelham (41% S/L) are approaching balanced — act with more urgency in those markets.
- →The 2-storey detached segment is the most stable and most in-demand. If that’s your target, expect less room to negotiate than in other segments — particularly in Grimsby and Pelham.
- →Bank of Canada held at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive month. Your financing picture is stable and predictable. Get pre-approved and move when the right property comes up.
For sellers
The window is open. Four months of price stability gives you a firm foundation to price from.
- →Four months of price stability means comparables are reliable again. You can price with confidence knowing the market isn’t shifting under your feet. That’s genuinely new for 2026.
- →Listings are up 27.4% from August — your competition increased this month. Presentation and pricing need to be sharp. A well-priced, well-presented home still sells in 42 days regionally.
- →Pelham sellers are in the strongest position — 41% S/L, smallest YoY price decline (-2.7%), and sales doubled YoY. If you’re in Pelham, now is genuinely one of the better times to list in 2026.
- →St. Catharines sellers face the most headwinds — 28% S/L and the most MoM price pressure. Price aggressively relative to recent comparables and don’t leave it on the market hoping for the right buyer.
- →October and November are active fall months. If you list now, you capture buyers who are motivated to close before the year ends. That urgency works in your favour.
Common questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Has the Niagara market hit bottom?
Four consecutive months of prices moving less than 0.5% per month, with the YoY gap narrowing from -8% earlier in the year to -4.6% in September, is about as clear a signal of a price floor as you can get without a time machine. Are there risks that could push prices lower? Yes — a major economic shock or unexpected rate hikes would do it. But the base case, given stable rates, tightening inventory, and improving YoY comparisons, is that the bottom is in or very close to it. The data is saying the same thing four months in a row.
Why did the S/L ratio drop so much from August to September?
Because listings came back. The storm-delayed August inventory hit the market in September — listings jumped 27.4% MoM while sales held essentially flat. More supply relative to the same number of buyers means the ratio drops. This is exactly what the NAR chair predicted and exactly what happened in September 2025 (their S/L was 29.1% — this September was 34.1%, actually better). It’s seasonal normalisation, not market deterioration.
Why did St. Catharines sales drop 24% year-over-year?
September 2025 was an unusually strong month for St. Catharines (132 sales), which creates a tough comparison. 100 sales is still the highest volume of any municipality in September 2026, and the market remains active. The 28% S/L is a real indicator of buyer leverage, but it’s partly a function of how many listings hit the market (351) relative to the buyer pool. This is a market with lots of selection and motivated sellers — not a market in trouble.
Are apartments worth buying right now?
Two consecutive months of MoM gains (+3.8% each month) after being the weakest segment all year is interesting, but two months doesn’t make a trend. Year-over-year, apartments are still down 4.7% and remain the most negotiable segment. The case for buying condos/apartments right now: you’re likely buying near the bottom of this cycle for the segment, and you still have meaningful negotiating room on asking price in most markets. The case for waiting: you need a third month of gains to be more confident the floor is in for this segment specifically.
What should I expect from the October market?
October is typically one of the most active months of the fall market. Buyers who want to close before year-end start getting serious. Listings that have been sitting since September get repriced or pulled. Expect solid activity, particularly in Niagara Falls, Grimsby, and Pelham where demand has been strongest. If prices hold flat for a fifth consecutive month, that would cement the case for the bottom being in and likely bring more sellers off the fence heading into November.
